Working conditions and factory survival: Evidence from better factories Cambodia

A large and growing literature has identified several conditions, including exporting, that contribute to plant survival. A prevailing sentiment suggests that anti‐sweatshop activity against plants in developing countries adds to the risk of closure, making survival more difficult by imposing external constraints that may interfere with optimizing behavior. Using a relatively new plant‐level panel data set from Cambodia, this paper applies survival analysis to estimate the relationship between changes in working conditions and plant closure. The results find little, if any, evidence that improving working conditions increases the probability of closure. In fact, some evidence suggests that improvements in standards relating to compensation are positively correlated with the probability of plant survival.     

A DISTRIBUTION–FREE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN QUANTILES WITH CENSORED DATA

Abstract. In the context of a two–sample problem, a confidence interval for the difference of appropriate quantiles of the two survival distributions is described. This method is especially useful when the data include some right–censored observations. A relevant mathematical result is proved.     

Modeling conventional residential mortgage refinancings

This article models fixed-rate mortgage refinancings and offers an empirical test of the model. The model relates the probability that a household prepays its residential mortgage to both financial and economic variables. The financial variables included in the model measure the value of the embedded call option present in conventional fixed-rate mortgage loans. The economic variables measure the household's propensity to prepay for housing consumption adjustment reasons. Our main empirical finding is that increased interst-rate volatility significantly decreases prepayment probability. In addition, we find some statistical evidence to support the hypothesis that prepayment rates increase with increases in household income, increases in household size, and vary by age of household head and regionally.     

创新生态视角下中国信息产业面临的挑战与突围——美国制裁华为事件的启示

在贸易摩擦不断升级的背景下,美国不惜动用国家力量“绞杀”华为,其实质是对中国信息产业发展的围追堵截。文章类比生物生态系统,分析了中国信息产业创新生态系统的结构与生存机制,包括反馈机制、鲁棒调节机制、多样性调节机制等。针对中国信息产业领导种群的位置由欧美企业占据、企业核心技术缺失等问题,提出构建完善的产业生态系统,努力做到国产自主可控;聚焦信息产业核心技术,抢占产业生态领导种群位置;建立产业联盟,共建创新生态系统;加大对本土信息产业创新生态系统培育政策扶持力度等“突围”措施。     

论智慧

智慧是适应人更好生存需要形成的综合统一机能和活动调控机制,是理智的优化和最佳状态。智慧与理性既关系密切又存在着差别。理性是人的一种思想能力,而智慧是人的一个综合机能;理性所追求的是共性、普遍性、统一性,而智慧所追求的是合情合理性;理性的重要特点是注重局部精确和不懈追求,而智慧的特点是注重总体观照和适度满足;理性在价值上是中性的,而智慧在价值上是正面的。智慧是实现幸福这一人类终极目的的最佳途径,同时对于社会发展也具有重要意义。智慧对人类极端重要,但常常被误解和忽视,需要经常反思。     

Adult mortality in Russia

This paper studies the determinants of Russian adult mortality controlling for both individual and household heterogeneity. We employ survival analysis and utilize 12 rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey spanning a 14‐year period. Although confirming the crucial role of excessive alcohol consumption in shaping adult mortality risks in Russia, the results are original in several other respects. We find empirical support for the importance of relative status measured in non‐income terms in shaping mortality hazards. We find evidence of the influence of labour market behaviour, and sectoral and occupational mobility in particular, on longevity. The detrimental role of smoking to health is found to be comparable with the role of excess alcohol consumption, which is novel in the Russian context where the influence of smoking is typically downplayed in comparison with alcoholism. Finally, we find no micro evidence in support of the political economy view based on a positive correlation between low alcohol prices and high mortality rates found in regional‐level data.     

Explaining Export Duration in Kenya

This study establishes the hazard rate of exports from Kenya and identifies factors that explain the duration of exports using a discrete-time random effects logit regression model. A difference-in-differences estimator is used to assess the effects of AGOA. Export data between Kenya and 176 partners over 21 years (1995–2016) is used. We find that first-year survival rate is 39%. The median duration of Kenya’s exports is 1 year. AGOA enhances export survival, especially for apparels. COMESA also increases export survival but EAC has a dampening effect, even in SSA region. Differentiated products unlike capital-intensive products improve export survival.     

The business plan as a project: an evaluation of its predictive capability for business success

Although there is extensive research aimed at identifying the main success factors for new ventures, efforts directed at evaluating the real effect of the existence and quality of a business plan on a firm's survival chances have been limited. This study attempts to fill this gap by analyzing to what extent the quality of a business plan, measured according to its economic, financial and organizational viability, constitutes a good predictor of business survival; and how other variables related to the characteristics of the entrepreneur and the business can affect the predictive capability of the model under consideration. Hypotheses are tested using data collected from 2142 service firms. The results show that none of the three variables that evaluate business plan quality (economic, financial and organizational viability) seems to have a determining influence on survival chances. Adding essential characteristics related to the entrepreneur and the business (education and training, experience, kind of motivation, number of employees and start-up capital) does little to increase the model's predictive capabilities.     

如何拯救“亳州二夹弦”

作为悠久历史、极具艺术价值的地方剧种,＂亳州二夹弦＂正面临濒临灭绝的境地。探究＂亳州二夹弦＂的发展历程与音乐特点,实地调查其生存现状,问寻拯救之道,不仅是保存、发展传统文化的应有之义,也是丰富现代文化的必要手段。     

New Firm Survival: The Effects of Start-up Characteristics

This paper empirically examines the influence of operating activities and financial and investment decisions in the start-up year on post-entry survival, taking industry effects into account. Compared to traditional financial ratios, we find that funds flow measures are superior in identifying those start-up characteristics that are related to subsequent failure. In the first year, failed firms typically generate less cash flows, incur higher labour expenses, use more trade credit and financial debt, limit inventories and are cash constrained. Surprisingly, industry effects do not have a significant impact. From these results, we draw conclusions for public policy.